Topic
Trade Policy
News & analysis tagged Trade Policy — diplomacy, politics, and global affairs coverage from Model Diplomat.
242 Stories
West Africa Food Crisis: Three Shocks in 2026
Conflict, climate extremes, and the Strait of Hormuz closure drive a severe food crisis in West and Central Africa, with fertilizer prices surging 80% and millions displaced.
2026-07-29
US Tariffs on Brazil: A Political Play
US imposes 25% tariff on Brazil but exempts 66% of exports, targeting manufactured goods ahead of Brazil's October election. Analysis of the political calculus, exemptions, and Brazil's response options.
2026-07-22
US Restarts China Export Controls With 52-Ent
US Commerce Department adds 52 Chinese entities to Entity List and tightens controls on five-axis CNC machine tools, ending eight-month enforcement pause after Trump-Xi Busan truce.
2026-07-22
Trump's 50% Tariff on Canada Ends USMCA's Tar
Trump invokes Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 for the first time, imposing 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods and ending the USMCA tariff shield.
2026-07-22
Trump Fires 96-Year-Old Tariff Cannon at
Trump signs 50% tariffs on $20B of Canadian goods using Section 338 of Tariff Act of 1930, breaching USMCA for first time. Canada faces pressure as Mexico negotiates separately.
2026-07-22
Singapore-Japan Digital Zone Sidelines US
Singapore and Japan sign March 2026 Strategic Partnership merging digital governance, cutting data barriers, and aligning AI rules — while the US remains absent from the new Indo-Pacific digital trade architecture.
2026-07-22
Russia's Crypto Law: Sanctions-Evasion by Law
Russia's State Duma passes a comprehensive crypto law legalizing digital currency for all foreign trade settlements, transforming sanctions-evasion workarounds into state-backed financial infrastructure.
2026-07-22
Pentagon's 162-Day Supply Chain Reckoning
Trump's July 20 executive order closes the waiver loophole for Chinese-origin critical materials in defense systems and mandates full supply chain mapping. With zero U.S. heavy rare earth separation capacity and $7.6 billion in investments yet to produce output, the January 1, 2027 deadline faces a steep compliance cliff.
2026-07-22
India's AI Law: Market Access Over Safety
India drafts standalone AI law with consent requirements for synthetic content and curbs on agentic AI, raising compliance costs for foreign providers while creating a protected domestic governance industry.
2026-07-22
Brazil Becomes Trump's Section 301 Guinea Pig
Brazil faces a 25% US tariff from July 22, 2026, as the first test of Trump's post-IEEPA Section 301 regime. Exemptions covering 65% of exports reveal US industrial dependence.
2026-07-22
SK Hynix, CXMT IPOs Fueled by Chip Shortage
SK Hynix raises $26.5B in record US IPO while China's CXMT targets $10B Shanghai listing. Both deals are underwritten by the same global memory shortage, with Chey Tae-won's chipflation warning as the backdrop.
2026-07-21
IEA Warns Critical Mineral Supply Crisis Deep
IEA's 2026 Global Critical Minerals Outlook warns that export controls and price volatility are deterring private investment, deepening China's refining dominance and threatening $6.5 trillion in downstream production.
2026-07-21
G7 Turns Latin American Lithium Into a Geop
G7's binding 60% rare-earth diversification target by 2030 turns Latin America's lithium and copper into geopolitical chokepoints, pitting China's unconditional capital against Western conditional market access.
2026-07-21
Forrest Bets A$190M on Tungsten Before US Ban
Andrew Forrest invests A$190M in EQ Resources 164 days before a US defense ban on Chinese tungsten takes effect. China controls 80% of supply; the West has no domestic production.
2026-07-21
Critical Mineral Supply Chains More Concentr
IEA 2026 data shows top three refining nations control 86% of critical mineral processing, up from 82% in 2020. Low prices lock in China's dominance as Western diversification efforts lag.
2026-07-21
Colombia's $20B Venezuela Reconstruction Play
Colombia's president-elect names retail veteran Jorge Jaller as Venezuela envoy, prioritizing commercial access to $12-20 billion earthquake reconstruction over traditional diplomacy.
2026-07-21
The Trillion-Dollar Company That One Bill in
ASML's path to a trillion-dollar valuation hinges on the MATCH Act, a U.S. bill that would ban sales of chipmaking tools to China, threatening 27% of its revenue.
2026-07-20
South Korea's Mongolian Mineral Bet Runs Into
South Korea signs trade pact with Mongolia for rare earths and copper, but 90% of exports must cross China or Russia — Beijing has already weaponized its rare earth monopoly.
2026-07-20
Seoul's Mongolian Mineral Bet Is a Gamble
South Korea signs a comprehensive economic partnership with Mongolia to secure critical minerals, relying on an air bridge over China to bypass the landlocked nation's transit vulnerability.
2026-07-20
Trump's 10% Tariff Expires July 24
Trump's 10% universal tariff expires July 24, replaced by a two-tier Section 301 forced-labor tariff. Countries with bilateral deals pay 10%; others face 12.5%. $86B in IEEPA refunds paid.
2026-07-19
IEA Warns Mineral Supply Risks Deepen
IEA 2026 outlook finds critical mineral supply chains more concentrated than ever, with investment down 9% and $6.5 trillion in downstream production at risk from China's export controls.
2026-07-19
EU Orders Google to Open AI and Search Data
EU orders Google to open Android AI features and share search data with rivals under the DMA, targeting its data flywheel. OpenAI and Anthropic stand to gain.
2026-07-19
Congo Ships First Lithium, Beijing Wins Race
Zijin Mining ships DRC's first lithium exports to China, locking in a first-mover advantage as U.S. legal and infrastructure efforts fail to deliver a single tonne of concentrate.
2026-07-19
China's Rare Earth Strategy Shifts to Co-Opt
China's rare earth strategy shifts from export bans to 'strategic co-option' in Malaysia and Indonesia, embedding technology and state-owned firms inside foreign processing hubs to control supply chains even as rivals build them.
2026-07-19