Where is the Regional Outlook Forum 2026 being held?

The forum is being held in the city of Singapore, SGP.

What is the primary focus of the Regional Outlook Forum 2026?

The forum's primary focus is on "Confronting Chaos: The Future of International Order in Southeast Asia," addressing geopolitical and economic challenges in the region.

When does the Regional Outlook Forum 2026 begin?

The forum is scheduled to begin in January.

Regional Outlook Forum 2026 – Confronting Chaos: The Future of International Order in Southeast Asia

Name: Regional Outlook Forum 2026 – Confronting Chaos: The Future of International Order in Southeast Asia
Start: 2026-01-08T00:00:00Z
End: 2026-01-08T00:00:00Z
Location: Singapore

Jan 8, 2026Singapore, SingaporeIn-person

Registration open

The Regional Outlook Forum 2026, held in SGP, is a significant event focusing on the future of international order in Southeast Asia amidst a period of considerable global flux. This forum brings together experts and policymakers to analyze the complex geopolitical and economic challenges confronting the region. The discussions aim to provide a comprehensive understanding of the forces shaping Southeast Asia's trajectory and to explore potential pathways for stability and prosperity.

Committees & topics

Topics
The Future of the International Order · Southeast Asia and Regional Architecture · US-China Strategic Rivalry · Geo-economics and the Weaponization of Interdependence · The US-China Trade War and Tariff Escalation · Indonesian Politics under the Prabowo Administration · Myanmar's Civil War and Political Crisis · Thailand's Political Turbulence and the Shinawatra Dynasty

Why it matters

The forum's theme, "Confronting Chaos: The Future of International Order in Southeast Asia," underscores the critical juncture at which the region finds itself. Southeast Asia is a nexus of global power dynamics, economic interests, and diverse cultural landscapes. The stability and development of this region have profound implications for global trade, security, and international relations.

The insights generated from this forum are crucial for understanding the evolving international system, particularly as it pertains to the interplay between major global powers and regional actors. The discussions will likely touch upon the strategies countries in Southeast Asia are employing to navigate an increasingly multipolar world, characterized by shifting alliances and economic competition. For those involved in diplomacy, policy-making, or international studies, the forum offers a vital opportunity to gain perspective on the region's challenges and opportunities.

How to prepare

To effectively engage with the themes of the Regional Outlook Forum 2026, participants should undertake thorough preparation. A foundational understanding of the current geopolitical landscape of Southeast Asia is essential, including major power competition and regional integration efforts. Reviewing the historical context of international relations in the region will also provide valuable perspective.

Consider exploring various frameworks for analyzing international order and regional security, such as those discussed in the "Dynamic Analysis" lesson. Understanding the different perspectives of various stakeholders, both within Southeast Asia and from external powers, is key. The "Hidden Stakeholders" and "What Is Stakeholder Mapping?" lessons can offer useful methodologies for this. Participants should also be prepared to discuss potential policy responses to regional challenges, drawing on principles of "Engagement Strategies" to foster cooperative solutions.

Country perspectives

Where the most-relevant 5 countries stand on the core issues in play. Click through for the full country profile.

Singapore

As the host nation, SGP plays a central role in facilitating dialogue on regional stability and economic integration.

Role in topic

SGP consistently advocates for a rules-based international order and multilateralism, serving as a key convener for discussions on regional security and economic cooperation. Its strategic location and open economy make it particularly sensitive to shifts in global and regional power dynamics.

China

A major economic and political power, CHN's actions significantly influence the international order in Southeast Asia.

Role in topic

CHN's growing influence, particularly through economic initiatives and its stance on territorial disputes, is a central factor in the region's evolving international order. Its engagement strategies and regional ambitions are key considerations for understanding future dynamics.

United States

The USA maintains a significant presence and strategic interests in Southeast Asia, impacting regional security and alliances.

Role in topic

The USA's role in maintaining regional security and its economic partnerships are critical to the balance of power in Southeast Asia. Its approach to alliances and its strategic competition with other major powers directly shape the international order.

Indonesia

As the largest economy in Southeast Asia, IDN is a crucial voice in shaping regional cooperation and stability.

Role in topic

IDN's leadership within regional organizations and its independent foreign policy stance make it a pivotal actor in defining the future of international order in Southeast Asia. Its efforts to promote regional cohesion and address common challenges are highly influential.

Vietnam

VNM navigates complex geopolitical relationships while pursuing economic growth and national sovereignty.

Role in topic

VNM's strategic location and its historical experiences inform its approach to regional security and international relations. It plays an active role in regional forums, often emphasizing adherence to international law and multilateral cooperation to manage external pressures.

Topics & background

The background behind each topic and the actors that shape it.

The Future of the International Order

The post-1945 international order was built on a foundation of US-led alliances, multilateral institutions such as the United Nations, Bretton Woods bodies, and a broadly liberal set of norms around sovereignty, free trade, and human rights. For decades this framework absorbed decolonization, the Cold War, and the rise of new economic powers, but its universal legitimacy was always contested by states that viewed it as Western-centric. The end of the Cold War briefly produced a unipolar moment under American primacy, accompanied by waves of globalization and democratization that many assumed were irreversible. That assumption has eroded. China's rise, Russia's revisionism culminating in the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, persistent wars in the Middle East, and the weaponization of trade, sanctions, and technology have strained the rules-based system. Middle powers and Global South states increasingly hedge, while institutions like the WTO Appellate Body, the UN Security Council, and the ICC face paralysis or open defiance. Debates over reform, fragmentation into competing blocs, and the emergence of "minilateral" groupings such as the Quad, AUKUS, and BRICS+ define the current moment. For Southeast Asia, the question is whether a recognizable global order will persist, mutate into a multipolar concert, or fracture into rival spheres of influence. ASEAN states, long beneficiaries of open markets and predictable rules, now confront a world where great powers contest the very norms that underwrote regional prosperity.

Key players

Southeast Asia and Regional Architecture

Southeast Asia comprises eleven highly diverse states bound loosely by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), founded in 1967 amid Cold War anxieties about communist expansion. Through doctrines of non-interference, consensus, and centrality, ASEAN navigated decades of regional conflict, transformed itself into an economic community, and became the convening hub for wider Asian dialogues through the ARF, EAS, and ASEAN+3. The region's economic dynamism, demographic weight, and strategic position astride the Malacca and South China Sea sea lanes have made it a focal point of global commerce and great-power competition. Today ASEAN faces compounding stresses: maritime disputes in the South China Sea, the unresolved civil war in Myanmar that has exposed the limits of the Five-Point Consensus, intensifying US-China rivalry, and uneven economic recovery from the pandemic. Critics argue that consensus-based decision-making has made the bloc reactive and unable to discipline member states or shape outcomes on hard security issues. Supporters counter that ASEAN's value lies precisely in its inclusivity and its ability to keep external powers engaged without forcing binary choices. The region now debates how to preserve ASEAN centrality amid proliferating minilaterals (Quad, AUKUS, IPEF), how to handle Timor-Leste's accession, and how to respond to transnational challenges from climate change and cyber threats to scam compounds and irregular migration.

Key players

US-China Strategic Rivalry

Engagement between Washington and Beijing, premised since the 1970s on the idea that economic integration would moderate China's political trajectory, has given way to systemic rivalry. The 2017 US National Security Strategy formally labeled China a strategic competitor, and successive administrations have layered tariffs, export controls on advanced semiconductors, investment screening, and alliance-tightening measures atop one another. China, under Xi Jinping, has pursued military modernization, the Belt and Road Initiative, the Global Security and Development Initiatives, and assertive postures over Taiwan, the South China Sea, and the Sino-Indian border. Flashpoints span Taiwan, where Beijing has stepped up military activity around the island; the South China Sea, where confrontations between Chinese and Philippine vessels have intensified; technology, where the US seeks to deny China access to frontier chips and AI; and finance, where dollar dominance and renminbi internationalization shape long-term competition. Despite high-level dialogues following the 2023 Woodside summit, structural distrust persists, and both sides are preparing for protracted contestation. Southeast Asian states broadly refuse to choose sides but find their economic dependence on China and security ties (formal or informal) with the United States increasingly difficult to reconcile. The region is a primary theater where the rivalry will be tested, hedged, and possibly stabilized.

Key players

Geo-economics and the Weaponization of Interdependence

Geo-economics—the use of economic instruments to pursue strategic ends—has moved from the margins to the center of statecraft. Sanctions regimes against Russia, Iran, and North Korea; US export controls on advanced semiconductors and chip-making equipment; outbound investment screening; the EU's Anti-Coercion Instrument and Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism; and China's deployment of rare-earth and trade restrictions all reflect a world in which interdependence is increasingly seen as a vulnerability to be managed rather than a benefit to be deepened. This shift is reshaping global supply chains. "De-risking," friend-shoring, and industrial policy programs such as the US CHIPS and Inflation Reduction Acts and the EU's Net-Zero Industry Act are channeling subsidies into strategic sectors. China's Made in China 2025 and dual-circulation strategies pursue technological self-sufficiency. The dollar's centrality is being probed by alternative payment systems, while critical minerals for the energy transition have become a new arena of competition. For trading economies in Southeast Asia, geo-economic fragmentation is double-edged: relocation of manufacturing from China offers opportunity, but compliance costs, secondary sanctions risk, and pressure to align with one bloc or another are mounting. The IMF has warned that severe fragmentation could shave several percentage points off global GDP, with disproportionate costs for emerging markets.

Key players

The US-China Trade War and Tariff Escalation

The trade war began in earnest in 2018 when the first Trump administration imposed Section 301 tariffs on Chinese imports citing intellectual property theft and forced technology transfer. Beijing retaliated in kind. A "Phase One" deal in January 2020 paused but did not resolve the dispute; China fell short of its purchase commitments, and structural issues remained unaddressed. The Biden administration preserved most Trump-era tariffs and layered on sweeping semiconductor export controls in October 2022, expanded in 2023, alongside curbs on outbound investment in sensitive technologies. The rivalry sharpened further with Biden-era tariffs on Chinese EVs, batteries, and solar products in 2024, and with the return of the Trump administration in 2025, which has pursued broad reciprocal tariffs against China and many trading partners, prompting Chinese countermeasures on rare earths and agricultural goods. The WTO dispute settlement system, hobbled by the unfilled Appellate Body, has been largely unable to adjudicate these measures. Third countries—especially in Southeast Asia—face transshipment scrutiny, rules-of-origin tightening, and pressure to limit Chinese investment in sensitive sectors. Mexico, Vietnam, and Malaysia have absorbed relocated production, but now confront the risk of being caught in the crossfire of secondary tariffs and decoupling pressures.

Key players

Indonesian Politics under the Prabowo Administration

Indonesia, the world's third-largest democracy and largest Muslim-majority country, completed a consequential political transition in 2024. Prabowo Subianto, the former general and long-time presidential aspirant, won the February 2024 election in a landslide alongside running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the eldest son of outgoing President Joko Widodo. The pairing—enabled by a controversial Constitutional Court ruling that loosened age requirements—signaled both continuity with Jokowi's developmentalist agenda and the consolidation of an elite political coalition encompassing most major parties. Prabowo, inaugurated in October 2024, has pursued a sweeping policy agenda: a flagship free school meals program, the continuation of the Nusantara new capital project, downstream industrialization of nickel and other critical minerals, and an expanded cabinet designed to absorb potential opposition. His foreign policy has been notably active, with early visits to Beijing, Washington, and Moscow, and accession moves toward BRICS, signaling a more assertive non-aligned posture. Domestic concerns include the durability of democratic checks, civil-military relations given the elevated role of retired officers, fiscal sustainability of new social programs, and the management of communal and labor tensions. How Indonesia balances its G20 weight, ASEAN chairmanship rotations, and growing strategic salience will shape regional outcomes.

Key players

Myanmar's Civil War and Political Crisis

On 1 February 2021 the Myanmar military, the Tatmadaw, overthrew the elected National League for Democracy government, detaining Aung San Suu Kyi and President Win Myint and reversing a decade of fragile democratic opening. Mass civil disobedience evolved into armed resistance: a parallel National Unity Government (NUG) was formed, People's Defense Forces proliferated, and longstanding ethnic armed organizations expanded their operations. ASEAN's April 2021 Five-Point Consensus, requiring an end to violence and inclusive dialogue, has been openly defied by the junta and is widely judged a failure. The war's trajectory shifted dramatically in late 2023 with Operation 1027, launched by the Three Brotherhood Alliance—MNDAA, TNLA, and Arakan Army—which seized swathes of territory in Shan State and along the Chinese border. By 2024 and into 2025, the junta had lost control of significant portions of Rakhine, Chin, Kachin, and Karenni areas, though it retains central Myanmar, airpower, and key cities. The humanitarian toll is severe: millions displaced, a collapsing economy, and the Rohingya population in Rakhine again caught between the military and the Arakan Army. Myanmar is now also a regional epicenter of scam compounds and transnational crime, with spillover into Thailand, China, and beyond. The junta's planned elections are dismissed by most observers as illegitimate, while questions mount about international recognition, sanctions effectiveness, and the role of China and Russia as arms suppliers and diplomatic shields.

Key players

Thailand's Political Turbulence and the Shinawatra Dynasty

Thailand's politics have been dominated for over two decades by the contest between networks aligned with the Shinawatra family and the royalist-military establishment. Coups in 2006 and 2014 toppled Shinawatra-affiliated governments, and the 2017 constitution entrenched a powerful appointed Senate and Constitutional Court that have repeatedly disqualified parties and politicians. The May 2023 election produced a stunning first-place finish for the progressive Move Forward Party, but it was blocked from forming government; Pheu Thai, the latest Shinawatra vehicle, instead formed a coalition with conservative parties and military-linked groups. Srettha Thavisin became prime minister in August 2023 but was removed by the Constitutional Court in August 2024 over an ethics violation. Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of Thaksin, succeeded him, while Move Forward itself was dissolved and reconstituted as the People's Party. Thaksin's return from exile, his medical parole, and ongoing royal-defamation proceedings have underscored the fragility of the bargain underpinning the current government. A border flare-up with Cambodia near Preah Vihear in 2025 has further pressured the coalition. Key issues include constitutional reform, the future of lèse-majesté (Article 112) prosecutions, economic stagnation, household debt, and Thailand's posture on Myanmar, where Bangkok has pursued quiet engagement with the junta even as cross-border humanitarian and security pressures grow.

Key players

Resources

News, lessons, and country profiles to prep for Regional Outlook Forum 2026 – Confronting Chaos: The Future of International Order in Southeast Asia.

Recent reporting to ground your prep

Rahul Gandhi Defends Tamil Nadu's Autonomy

India's 131st Amendment Bill

West Bengal 2026 Election

Trump's Legal Battles Impact 2026 Elections

Lessons

Bite-sized lessons to build the basics

Hidden Stakeholders

Engagement Strategies

Dynamic Analysis

Stakeholder Mapping Workshop

Courses

Guided courses that go deeper on the topic

Advanced Negotiation

Multilateral Negotiation

Policy Brief Writing

Conflict Resolution

The states in play, with the data that shapes their stance

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Singapore January 2026

By committee

Frequently asked questions

Regional Outlook Forum 2026 – Confronting Chaos: The Future of International Order in Southeast Asia

Jan 8, 2026Singapore, SingaporeIn-person

Registration open

Committees & topics

Topics
The Future of the International Order · Southeast Asia and Regional Architecture · US-China Strategic Rivalry · Geo-economics and the Weaponization of Interdependence · The US-China Trade War and Tariff Escalation · Indonesian Politics under the Prabowo Administration · Myanmar's Civil War and Political Crisis · Thailand's Political Turbulence and the Shinawatra Dynasty

Why it matters

How to prepare

Country perspectives

Where the most-relevant 5 countries stand on the core issues in play. Click through for the full country profile.

Singapore

As the host nation, SGP plays a central role in facilitating dialogue on regional stability and economic integration.

Role in topic

China

A major economic and political power, CHN's actions significantly influence the international order in Southeast Asia.

Role in topic

United States

The USA maintains a significant presence and strategic interests in Southeast Asia, impacting regional security and alliances.

Role in topic

Indonesia

As the largest economy in Southeast Asia, IDN is a crucial voice in shaping regional cooperation and stability.

Role in topic

Vietnam

VNM navigates complex geopolitical relationships while pursuing economic growth and national sovereignty.

Role in topic

Topics & background

The background behind each topic and the actors that shape it.

The Future of the International Order

Key players

Southeast Asia and Regional Architecture

Key players

US-China Strategic Rivalry

Key players

Geo-economics and the Weaponization of Interdependence

Key players

The US-China Trade War and Tariff Escalation

Key players

Indonesian Politics under the Prabowo Administration

Key players

Myanmar's Civil War and Political Crisis

Key players

Thailand's Political Turbulence and the Shinawatra Dynasty

Key players

Resources

News, lessons, and country profiles to prep for Regional Outlook Forum 2026 – Confronting Chaos: The Future of International Order in Southeast Asia.

Recent reporting to ground your prep

Rahul Gandhi Defends Tamil Nadu's Autonomy

India's 131st Amendment Bill

West Bengal 2026 Election

Trump's Legal Battles Impact 2026 Elections

Lessons

Bite-sized lessons to build the basics

Hidden Stakeholders

Engagement Strategies

Dynamic Analysis

Stakeholder Mapping Workshop

Courses

Guided courses that go deeper on the topic

Advanced Negotiation

Multilateral Negotiation

Policy Brief Writing

Conflict Resolution

The states in play, with the data that shapes their stance

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Singapore January 2026

By committee

Committees & topics

Why it matters

How to prepare

Country perspectives

Topics & background

Resources

Related conferences

Raffles Policy Dialogue 2026

International Conference on Privacy and Information Security Law (ICPISL)

IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2026: Managing Regional Tensions Amid Global Competition

SISMUN Conclave 2026

International Conference on Public Policy, Globalization, and Democratic Rights (ICPPGDR - 26)

The Maxwell Challenge 2026

Frequently asked questions

Committees & topics

Why it matters

How to prepare

Country perspectives

Topics & background

Resources

Related conferences

Raffles Policy Dialogue 2026

International Conference on Privacy and Information Security Law (ICPISL)

IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2026: Managing Regional Tensions Amid Global Competition

SISMUN Conclave 2026

International Conference on Public Policy, Globalization, and Democratic Rights (ICPPGDR - 26)

The Maxwell Challenge 2026

Frequently asked questions