Scenario planning
Three plausible futures with triggers, signposts, and what each means for you. Built for researchers and analysts who need a structured, sourced answer they can stand behind.
Key highlights
Three distinct futures
Base case, escalation, and de-escalation — not one confident guess.
Causal paths
How each scenario actually comes about, with a rough probability attached.
Early signposts
The observable signals that tell you which scenario is unfolding.
What to watch
The two variables that matter most, so you track the right things.
About this template
Forecasting a single future is a way to be confidently wrong. This template runs a proper scenario-planning exercise on your question instead: three distinct futures — base case, escalation, de-escalation — each with a named one-line label, the causal path that gets there, a rough probability, and the implications if it lands.
It gives you the early signposts that would tell you a scenario is unfolding, then names the two variables that matter most and what to watch. The output isn't a prediction; it's a map you can navigate as events move.
Model Diplomat vs. generic AI
The same prompt in a general chatbot can produce something that reads right and isn't. Here's the difference.
| Aspect | This template | ChatGPT / generic AI |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | Primary documents, cited and openable | Often fabricated, or none at all |
| Format | Structured brief with a synthesis you can cite | An unstructured summary you have to organize |
| Verifiability | Every claim checkable against its source | No way to tell what's real |
| Built for the work | Tuned for diplomacy, politics, and law | General-purpose, not domain-aware |
| Cost | Free to start | — |
Who it's for
Policy analysts and researchers
Producing a scenario planning they can cite and stand behind.
Students and pre-law readers
Getting a structured, sourced footing on an unfamiliar issue fast.
Journalists and writers
Grounding a piece in primary sources before deadline.
Briefers and chiefs of staff
Turning a tangle of facts into something a decision-maker can act on.
What you'll fill in
A preview of the one field you'll complete in the composer — the rest is written for you.
The prompt
This is what lands in your composer — edit the [blanks] and send.
Run a scenario-planning exercise on: "[the question (e.g. how does the Taiwan Strait standoff evolve over 24 months?)]". Give three distinct scenarios — base case, escalation, and de-escalation. For each: a one-line name, the causal path, rough probability, the early signposts that would tell me it's happening, and the implications. End with the two variables that matter most and what to watch.
Start from this template
Model Diplomat fills it in with answers grounded in primary sources — every claim comes with a citation you can check.
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