Meloni's Bridge Burns: Trump and Italy

Meloni's Bridge Burns — How Trump Lost His Only European Ally

Italy's prime minister, once Trump's indispensable partner in Europe, is now publicly feuding with Washington — and discovering it's good politics at home.

The rupture that began with a schoolyard dispute over a G7 photograph has exposed the structural collapse of the most important U.S.-European relationship of Trump's second term. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, the sole EU leader invited to Trump's January 2025 inauguration and long treated as Washington's preferred interlocutor in Brussels, is now publicly trading insults with the American president — and Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has cancelled a diplomatic visit to the United States in protest. BBC News

The trigger was trivial: Trump told Italy's La7 network that Meloni "begged" him for a photo at the G7 summit in Évian, France, and that he obliged only because he "felt sorry for her." Meloni shot back on Instagram with a seven-million-follower megaphone: "Neither I nor Italy ever beg." Al Jazeera Trump then escalated on Truth Social, claiming Meloni had asked "over and over" for the picture and was only seeking to repair ties "to get her numbers up" after Italy blocked U.S. access to its airbases for strikes on Iran. "No thanks!!!" he wrote. BBC News

But the photograph is a cipher. The real collision runs through three hard-power fault lines.

First, military access. In February, Meloni's government refused Washington permission to use the Sigonella air and naval base in Sicily for operations against Iran — a denial the White House treated as a betrayal from a NATO ally whose defense spending, at 1.49% of GDP, remains among the lowest in Europe. As political-risk consultant Francesco Galietti told The Globe and Mail, "When Trump complains about Sigonella, he is voicing the irritation of the U.S. defense establishment, not just his own."

Second, trade. Italy runs a €40 billion trade surplus with the United States — its largest with any single country — driven by luxury goods, foodstuffs, and machinery. Trump's baseline 10% tariff on European exports hung over the relationship before the personal feud erupted. Meloni, who had positioned herself as a tariff-shield for Italian producers, now faces the prospect that the shield is gone. POLITICO Europe

Third, domestic politics. Trump's approval rating among Italians has cratered to 8-15%, depending on the poll. Even center-right voters — Meloni's base — largely disapprove of him. The Globe and Mail Publicly standing up to Trump is therefore not just defensible for Meloni — it is electorally useful ahead of elections due by December 2027.

The beneficiary is clear. Meloni emerges from this with reinforced nationalist credentials and the solidarity of figures across Italy's political spectrum, from President Sergio Mattarella — who phoned her immediately — to League leader Matteo Salvini, who declared, "Whoever attacks Giorgia, attacks all of us." BBC News Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and Belgian Defence Minister Theo Francken also rallied to her defense, suggesting the spat is hardening European solidarity against Washington. The Globe and Mail

The loser is Washington's diplomatic architecture in Europe. The White House has now alienated the one EU leader ideologically aligned with Trump on migration, culture-war issues, and multilateral skepticism — precisely the partner who could have delivered concessions in Brussels. As Il Sole 24 Ore reported, Meloni is now publicly calling for a "return to normalcy" while making clear she "hasn't changed" Italy's 80-year foreign-policy trajectory — a formulation that implies Washington is the party that has departed from the alliance.

Both sides are now scrambling to de-escalate. Tajani told the National Post that "it's not a definitive rift; that would be a mistake for all," and pointed to next month's NATO summit in Ankara as the next diplomatic venue. Meloni, at a domestic event, said she does "not intend to fan the flames."

Watch Ankara. The NATO summit is the next test of whether the alliance can absorb this fracture — or whether Trump escalates further on defense spending, basing rights, or tariffs. If Meloni arrives in Turkey still boxed out by Washington, the break will have hardened from theatrics into strategy.