Question 1

How accurate are political polls?

Accepted Answer

National polls are typically accurate within 2-3 percentage points. State-level polls have larger errors. The challenge is not that polls are wildly wrong but that small errors in close races produce incorrect predictions about who will win.

Question 2

What went wrong with the polls in 2016?

Accepted Answer

National polls in 2016 were within historical norms (Clinton won the popular vote by 2 points, as polls predicted). The failure was in state-level polls in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which underestimated Trump support, partly due to undersampling non-college-educated white voters.

Question 3

What is a margin of error?

Accepted Answer

The margin of error (typically +/- 3 points) tells you the range within which the true population value likely falls. A poll showing 48-46 with a 3-point margin means neither candidate has a statistically significant lead.

Question 4

Are prediction markets more accurate than polls?

Accepted Answer

Prediction markets aggregate diverse information sources and have a strong track record, but they are susceptible to manipulation, herd behavior, and the same uncertainties that affect polls. Neither is consistently superior.