For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt.
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Lesson 10 min 20 XP

Tracking Polls

How daily and weekly tracking polls detect movement in voter preferences and why they are more useful for trends than for absolute numbers.

Rolling Averages and Daily Updates

Tracking polls survey a new batch of respondents each night and report rolling averages, typically over three or four nights. If 300 people are surveyed each night, the three-night rolling average represents 900 respondents. Each day, the oldest night's data drops off and the newest night's data is added, creating a continuous stream of results.

The value of tracking polls is not their absolute accuracy on any given day but their ability to detect movement. If the tracking average shifts from 48-46 to 45-49 over a week, something has happened, even if the absolute numbers are not perfectly accurate. Campaigns use tracking polls as an early warning system: did last night's debate performance move numbers? Did an opposition attack land? Is the race tightening?