Exit Polls
How exit polls work, what they reveal about voter behavior, and why they are better for understanding elections than predicting them.
Surveying Voters as They Leave the Polls
Exit polls intercept voters as they leave polling places and ask them a short questionnaire about how they voted and why. In the US, the National Election Pool (a consortium of major media organizations) conducts exit polls at hundreds of randomly selected precincts on Election Day, supplemented by phone surveys of early and mail voters.
Exit polls serve two purposes. First, they provide the demographic data that television networks use to 'call' races before all votes are counted. If the exit poll shows a candidate winning 58% of the suburban vote in a state where suburbs determine the outcome, networks can project the winner with confidence. Second, they reveal the 'why' behind election results: which issues motivated voters, how different demographic groups voted, and what drove the outcome.