The 2020 Polling Debate
How polls in 2020 repeated some of 2016's errors despite reforms, reigniting debate about whether modern polling is fundamentally broken.
What Happened in 2020
National polls predicted Biden would win by about 8 points; he won by 4.5 points. This 3.5-point error was the largest national polling miss since 1980. State-level polls were worse: Wisconsin polls overestimated Biden by 8 points, Ohio by 7, and Florida by 5. Polls correctly predicted the winner in most states, but the anticipated 'blue wave' never materialized.
The 2020 error was particularly frustrating because it came after the industry had implemented education weighting and other reforms in response to 2016. The error was in the same direction (underestimating Republican support), suggesting a systemic issue that simple methodological fixes could not resolve.
