Where will this event on Taiwan's strategic outlook take place?

The event will be held in New York, USA, in North America.

What is the primary focus of the event?

The event focuses on Taiwan's strategic outlook and the future of its relations with the United States.

When is the event scheduled to occur?

The event is scheduled to begin in the summer.

Taiwan’s Strategic Outlook and the Future of US‑Taiwan Relations

Name: Taiwan’s Strategic Outlook and the Future of US‑Taiwan Relations
Start: 2026-06-22T00:00:00Z
End: 2026-06-22T00:00:00Z
Location: New York

Jun 22, 2026New York, United StatesIn-person

Registration open

This event, hosted in New York, USA, will delve into the complex and evolving strategic outlook of TWN and its implications for relations with the USA. The discussion will cover the multifaceted challenges and opportunities that define TWN's position in the Indo-Pacific region, examining both internal dynamics and external pressures. Attendees will gain insights into the geopolitical landscape surrounding TWN, including its economic resilience, democratic governance, and defense strategies. The event aims to foster a deeper understanding of how these factors shape TWN's interactions with key international partners, particularly the USA, and what this means for regional stability and global affairs.

Committees & topics

Topics
Taiwan's Strategic Outlook · US-Taiwan Relations · Cross-Strait Stability · Taiwan's International Space · Defense Posture · Economic Resilience · Regional Architecture · US-Taiwan-China Triangular Relations

Why it matters

The future of TWN holds significant implications for international security, trade, and democratic values. As a vibrant democracy and a critical hub for global technology, TWN's strategic stability is paramount. Any shifts in its geopolitical standing or its relationship with the USA could trigger widespread repercussions across the Indo-Pacific and beyond.

Understanding TWN's strategic outlook is crucial for policymakers, academics, and the public alike. The island's unique position at the intersection of major power competition makes it a bellwether for the broader international order. The discussions at this event will illuminate the intricate web of alliances, economic dependencies, and security concerns that define this critical region.

Furthermore, the event provides a platform to explore potential scenarios and their global impact. From supply chain resilience to the balance of power, the trajectory of TWN and its ties with the USA will undoubtedly influence a range of international issues. This makes the insights shared particularly relevant for anyone seeking to comprehend contemporary global dynamics.

How to prepare

To prepare effectively for this event, participants should engage in a thorough review of the historical context of TWN-USA relations, including key agreements and policy shifts. Understanding the nuances of the 'One China' policy and its various interpretations by different international actors will be essential. Familiarity with the economic interdependencies between TWN, the USA, and CHN, particularly in critical sectors like semiconductors, will also provide valuable context.

Participants should also consider the perspectives of various stakeholders, both governmental and non-governmental, that influence TWN's strategic decisions and its relationship with the USA. This includes examining the domestic political landscapes in TWN, the USA, and CHN, as well as the roles of other regional powers such as JPN, AUS, KOR, and PHL. A 'stakeholder mapping' exercise, as discussed in the lesson "what-is-stakeholder-mapping", could be particularly beneficial.

Finally, it would be advantageous to research recent developments in military exercises, diplomatic exchanges, and economic sanctions related to the TWN Strait. Analyzing these events through a "dynamic-analysis" lens will help in anticipating potential future trajectories and understanding the complexities of the current situation. Considering the "hidden-stakeholders" in these geopolitical maneuvers will offer a more complete picture.

Country perspectives

Where the most-relevant 5 countries stand on the core issues in play. Click through for the full country profile.

Taiwan

Seeks to maintain its democratic governance and economic prosperity amidst geopolitical pressures, while navigating its relationship with both CHN and the USA.

Role in topic

The central subject of the discussion, TWN's strategic outlook and its future are the primary focus of the event. Its internal political dynamics, economic resilience, and defense capabilities are critical to understanding the broader regional context.

United States

Aims to support TWN's self-defense capabilities and democratic institutions, while managing its complex relationship with CHN and maintaining regional stability.

Role in topic

A key external actor whose relationship with TWN is a core theme of the event. The USA's policies, military support, and diplomatic engagements significantly influence TWN's strategic environment and regional security.

China

Considers TWN an integral part of its territory and seeks reunification, by peaceful means if possible, but reserves the right to other measures.

Role in topic

A major geopolitical force whose claims over TWN and military activities in the region are a primary driver of the strategic tensions and the focus of international concern. Its actions directly shape TWN's strategic outlook.

Japan

Concerned about regional stability and the security of its maritime trade routes, supports a peaceful resolution to cross-strait issues.

Role in topic

A significant regional power with strong economic ties to TWN and a vested interest in the stability of the Indo-Pacific. Its security concerns are closely linked to the situation in the TWN Strait.

Australia

Emphasizes the importance of a free and open Indo-Pacific and supports international law, while seeking to de-escalate tensions in the region.

Role in topic

An important ally of the USA in the Indo-Pacific, its perspective on regional security and maritime freedom is relevant to the broader discussion on TWN's strategic environment.

Topics & background

The background behind each topic and the actors that shape it.

Taiwan's Strategic Outlook

Taiwan's strategic position has been shaped by the unresolved Chinese Civil War, which ended in 1949 with the Republic of China (ROC) government retreating to Taipei while the People's Republic of China (PRC) consolidated control of the mainland. For decades, both governments claimed to represent all of China; over time, Taiwan democratized in the 1980s and 1990s, developing a distinct political identity while Beijing maintained that the island is an inalienable part of PRC territory. The 1992 'Consensus,' the 1995-96 Taiwan Strait Crisis, and the PRC's 2005 Anti-Secession Law remain core reference points in the dispute. Today, Taiwan sits at the center of intensifying US-China strategic competition. Under Xi Jinping, PRC military activity around the island has escalated, including large-scale exercises following Speaker Pelosi's 2022 visit and President Lai Ching-te's 2024 inauguration. Taipei faces the dual challenge of deterring coercion while sustaining its semiconductor-driven economy, diversifying trade away from the mainland, and preserving informal partnerships in a world where only a dozen states recognize the ROC diplomatically. Its strategic outlook hinges on credible deterrence, economic indispensability (notably TSMC), and the durability of US and partner commitments.

Key players

US-Taiwan Relations

US-Taiwan relations have operated on an unusual footing since Washington switched diplomatic recognition from the ROC to the PRC on January 1, 1979. Congress immediately passed the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), which obliges the US to provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character and to maintain the capacity to resist coercion against the island. The framework is supplemented by the Three Joint Communiqués with Beijing and the Six Assurances given to Taipei in 1982, producing a posture of 'strategic ambiguity' regarding whether the US would intervene militarily in a conflict. In the past decade the relationship has deepened markedly. The Taiwan Travel Act (2018), the TAIPEI Act (2020), record-value arms sales, the 2023 US-Taiwan Initiative on 21st-Century Trade, and repeated congressional delegations reflect bipartisan support in Washington. President Biden stated four times that the US would defend Taiwan, blurring traditional ambiguity, while the second Trump administration has emphasized burden-sharing and pressed Taipei to raise defense spending. The current debate centers on how to translate political support into credible deterrence without provoking a crisis.

Key players

Cross-Strait Stability

Cross-Strait relations have oscillated between dialogue and confrontation since the 1949 separation. A thaw under President Ma Ying-jeou (2008-2016) produced the ECFA trade agreement and the 2015 Ma-Xi summit in Singapore, the first meeting of leaders from the two sides. Relations cooled sharply after the DPP's Tsai Ing-wen took office in 2016 and refused to endorse the '1992 Consensus,' prompting Beijing to suspend official channels and intensify diplomatic, economic, and military pressure. Since 2022 the strait has become one of the world's most closely watched flashpoints. The PLA now conducts near-daily air and naval incursions across the median line, large encirclement exercises ('Joint Sword' 2024A and 2024B), and gray-zone operations including undersea cable cuts and coast guard intrusions near Kinmen. Lai Ching-te's election in 2024 has hardened Beijing's rhetoric, with PRC officials labeling him a 'separatist.' Stability today depends on managing miscalculation risks, maintaining communication channels, and preventing gray-zone tactics from escalating into open conflict.

Key players

Taiwan's International Space

Taiwan's international space has contracted steadily since UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 (1971), which transferred the China seat from the ROC to the PRC. Beijing interprets 2758 as settling Taiwan's status, a reading contested by Taipei and increasingly by the US, EU, and others, who argue the resolution did not address Taiwan's representation. Taiwan currently maintains formal diplomatic relations with roughly twelve states, after recent switches by Panama (2017), the Dominican Republic (2018), the Solomon Islands and Kiribati (2019), Nicaragua (2021), Honduras (2023), and Nauru (2024). Exclusion from the WHO (including during COVID-19), ICAO, INTERPOL, and the UNFCCC has become a focal point for partners advocating 'meaningful participation.' Taipei compensates through robust unofficial ties, trade offices, and engagement in APEC and the WTO, where it participates as 'Chinese Taipei' or the 'Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu.' The contemporary debate centers on whether and how like-minded states can push back on Beijing's broadening interpretation of the One China principle in international organizations.

Key players

Defense Posture

Taiwan's defense posture has evolved from a Cold War-era force focused on retaking the mainland to one centered on deterring and defeating a PRC invasion or blockade. The 2017 Overall Defense Concept, championed by former Chief of the General Staff Lee Hsi-min, prioritized asymmetric warfare: large numbers of mobile, survivable, and inexpensive systems such as anti-ship missiles, sea mines, mobile air defenses, and drones. Implementation has been uneven, with the military also pursuing higher-end platforms like F-16Vs, indigenous submarines (Hai Kun), and M1A2T tanks. Reforms have accelerated since 2022. Conscription was extended from four months back to one year starting in 2024, reserve training has been overhauled, and the defense budget has reached record highs, with the Lai administration targeting roughly 3% of GDP. The US has approved large arms packages including HIMARS, Harpoon coastal defense systems, Stingers, and F-16 upgrades, though a multi-billion-dollar backlog persists. Debates continue over the right balance between asymmetric and conventional capability, civil defense readiness, and whole-of-society resilience against gray-zone coercion.

Key players

Economic Resilience

Taiwan's economy is both a strategic asset and a vulnerability. The island produces over 60% of the world's semiconductors and roughly 90% of the most advanced logic chips through TSMC, giving rise to the so-called 'silicon shield.' At the same time, China remains Taiwan's largest export market, accounting for roughly 35% of exports including Hong Kong, creating deep interdependencies that Beijing has periodically weaponized through targeted bans on Taiwanese agricultural and industrial goods and the suspension of ECFA tariff concessions in 2023-2024. Under Tsai and now Lai, Taipei has pursued a 'New Southbound Policy' to diversify trade toward Southeast Asia, India, and Australia, and has encouraged TSMC and other firms to invest in fabs in Arizona, Kumamoto, and Dresden. Energy security is a parallel concern: Taiwan imports nearly all of its energy, and a blockade scenario would expose acute LNG and oil vulnerabilities. The resilience agenda spans supply-chain diversification, stockpiling, financial system hardening, undersea cable redundancy, and coordination with G7 partners on export controls aimed at protecting critical technology.

Key players

Regional Architecture

The Indo-Pacific security architecture has thickened considerably in the past decade, with implications for Taiwan even though it is excluded from most formal mechanisms. The US hub-and-spokes alliance system (Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Australia, Thailand) has been supplemented by the Quad (US, Japan, India, Australia), AUKUS (2021), the US-Japan-ROK Camp David framework (2023), and the US-Japan-Philippines trilateral (2024). The 2021 Suga-Biden statement was the first US-Japan summit communiqué in over fifty years to mention Taiwan Strait stability, a formulation now standard in G7 documents. ASEAN, by contrast, has remained cautious, emphasizing centrality and non-interference and rarely naming Taiwan directly. Beijing promotes alternative frameworks such as the Global Security Initiative and deepens ties through the SCO and BRICS+. For Taiwan, the question is how to integrate into the de facto architecture, through interoperability with US-aligned militaries, Coast Guard cooperation, and participation in economic frameworks like IPEF-adjacent initiatives, without triggering escalation. Philippine basing access under EDCA and Japanese defense reforms have reshaped the geography of any potential Taiwan contingency.

Key players

US-Taiwan-China Triangular Relations

The US-Taiwan-China triangle is governed by a delicate framework built over four decades. Washington's 'One China policy' is distinct from Beijing's 'One China principle': the US acknowledges, but does not endorse, the PRC position that Taiwan is part of China, and insists that any resolution be peaceful and acceptable to people on both sides of the strait. This is operationalized through the Three Communiqués, the Taiwan Relations Act, and the Six Assurances, while Beijing has codified its own approach through the 2005 Anti-Secession Law authorizing 'non-peaceful means' against secession. The triangle has grown more volatile as US-China competition has intensified. High-level visits, arms packages, transit diplomacy by ROC presidents, and PLA exercises now form a recurring action-reaction cycle. The Biden-Xi summits at Bali (2022), Woodside (2023), and Lima (2024) sought guardrails, including resumed military-to-military talks, but did not narrow underlying differences on Taiwan. With a second Trump term, questions about tariff pressure, technology controls, transactional security commitments, and Xi Jinping's reported 2027 PLA readiness benchmark place the triangle under renewed strain. Managing it requires Washington and Taipei to coordinate closely while keeping channels with Beijing open enough to prevent miscalculation.

Key players

Resources

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Lessons

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Hidden Stakeholders

Engagement Strategies

Dynamic Analysis

Courses

Guided courses that go deeper on the topic

Media & Press Relations

Cross-Cultural Communication

Advanced Negotiation

Multilateral Negotiation

The states in play, with the data that shapes their stance

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

Country dossier

United States June 2026

By committee

Frequently asked questions

Taiwan’s Strategic Outlook and the Future of US‑Taiwan Relations

Jun 22, 2026New York, United StatesIn-person

Registration open

Committees & topics

Topics
Taiwan's Strategic Outlook · US-Taiwan Relations · Cross-Strait Stability · Taiwan's International Space · Defense Posture · Economic Resilience · Regional Architecture · US-Taiwan-China Triangular Relations

Why it matters

How to prepare

Country perspectives

Where the most-relevant 5 countries stand on the core issues in play. Click through for the full country profile.

Taiwan

Seeks to maintain its democratic governance and economic prosperity amidst geopolitical pressures, while navigating its relationship with both CHN and the USA.

Role in topic

United States

Aims to support TWN's self-defense capabilities and democratic institutions, while managing its complex relationship with CHN and maintaining regional stability.

Role in topic

China

Considers TWN an integral part of its territory and seeks reunification, by peaceful means if possible, but reserves the right to other measures.

Role in topic

Japan

Concerned about regional stability and the security of its maritime trade routes, supports a peaceful resolution to cross-strait issues.

Role in topic

A significant regional power with strong economic ties to TWN and a vested interest in the stability of the Indo-Pacific. Its security concerns are closely linked to the situation in the TWN Strait.

Australia

Emphasizes the importance of a free and open Indo-Pacific and supports international law, while seeking to de-escalate tensions in the region.

Role in topic

An important ally of the USA in the Indo-Pacific, its perspective on regional security and maritime freedom is relevant to the broader discussion on TWN's strategic environment.