Samoa's New PM Wins Landslide Election

Samoa's New PM Won a Landslide — While Facing Criminal Charges

La'auli Leuatea Schmidt turned a party coup into a two-thirds supermajority. The former PM is reduced to three seats. Now the question is what he does with unchecked constitutional power.

La'auli Leuatea Schmidt was sworn in as Samoa's eighth prime minister on 16 September 2025 — eight months after being sacked from cabinet, six months after expelling the sitting prime minister from the party he founded, and weeks before his next court appearance on criminal charges including attempting to pervert the course of justice. RNZ

The 29 August snap election delivered FAST 30 of 51 seats, later rising to 31 when an independent joined. The Human Rights Protection Party took 14. Fiamē Naomi Mata'afa's hastily assembled Samoa Uniting Party won just three — her own seat plus two colleagues. ABC News Voter turnout hit 88.65% of 101,981 registered voters. World Socialist Web Site

The result is less a verdict on policy than the endpoint of a six-month internal war. In January, Mata'afa sacked La'auli as Agriculture Minister after he refused to stand down during a police investigation. As FAST party chairman, he retaliated by expelling her and four other ministers from the party. Scoop/RNZ She survived two no-confidence votes in February and March, but when MPs from both the opposition HRPP and La'auli's FAST faction combined to defeat her budget 34–16 on 27 May, the election became inevitable.

The power shift

La'auli now holds a two-thirds supermajority — the threshold required to amend Samoa's constitution as easily as passing ordinary legislation. The NZIIA's Richard Herr notes that a previous HRPP government used the same arithmetic to push through constitutional changes that "set Samoa on the path to transitioning from a parliamentary democracy to a party democracy" and contributed directly to the 2021 constitutional crisis. NZIIA

One of La'auli's first moves was appointing himself police minister — while facing ten criminal charges. He denies the allegations. His next court date is October 2025. ABC News

Mata'afa exits not just from power but from parliamentary relevance. Her SUP fell short of the eight-seat threshold for recognition as a parliamentary party under standing orders, meaning she sits as a private member — a status Samoan procedure has historically treated poorly. Most of her cabinet ministers, including former Deputy Prime Minister Tuala Iosefo Ponifasio, lost their seats entirely.

The economic backdrop voters punished

The campaign was fought on bread-and-butter collapse. Consumer prices in Samoa have risen nearly 30% since 2022. Agriculture's contribution to GDP dropped roughly 11% and fisheries by more than 50%, forcing heavier reliance on imports. World Socialist Web Site In March, Mata'afa declared a 30-day state of emergency over continuous power outages — faulty and storm-damaged infrastructure that cost an estimated 16% of GDP.

The IMF projects growth falling from 9.4% in 2024 to 5.4% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026. The Trump administration's 10% tariff hits hard: over 22% of Samoan exports go to the US and American Samoa. The suspension of USAID compounds the funding gap.

FAST campaigned on uncosted populist promises — free hospital services, monthly allowances for pregnant women, cash transfers for low-income families. When the ABC asked La'auli how he would fund them, he cancelled the interview.

What to watch

Three things, in order of urgency.

The October court date. La'auli is now both defendant and police minister. If the case proceeds and results in conviction, the constitutional and political fallout would be unprecedented for a sitting PM with a supermajority.

The first budget. Samoa is, as the ABC put it, "in a dire financial position." La'auli flew to New Zealand for medical treatment shortly after being sworn in and paid for the flight himself, noting the government "did not have enough money." The campaign pledges collide with fiscal reality within months.

Constitutional change. A two-thirds majority that can amend the constitution by simple statute is a loaded weapon. Herr asks the operative question: whether the 2021 crisis was not an aberration but the "precursor to this realignment" — and whether the ease of amendment now invites a further shift from parliamentary democracy toward party control. HRPP leader Tuila'epa Sa'ilele Malielegaoi has already signalled he will challenge results in court, but with 31 seats to 14, the arithmetic is unforgiving.