Russia-China Veto Blocks Hormuz Security as Oil Crisis Deepens
Central banks rank geopolitics as top risk amid US-Iran war; Russia and China veto UN shipping protection; fragile ceasefire holds amid nuclear clashes and Lebanon strikes[1][2].
The UN Security Council deadlock exposes Russia and China wielding veto power to shield Iran, blocking Bahrain's resolution for defensive shipping protection in the Strait of Hormuz.[
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/7/russia-and-china-block-un-resolution-on-strait-of-hormuz] Eleven members voted yes, but Moscow and Beijing called it biased, proposing their own Middle East text. Iran praised the vetoes as preventing "legitimized aggression," while US envoy Mike Waltz slammed it as a "new low" holding the global economy hostage.[https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/7/russia-and-china-block-un-resolution-on-strait-of-hormuz]
Iran's blockade—retaliation for the February 28 US-Israeli strikes—has halted 20% of global oil and gas flows, spiking prices and prompting Asian rationing.[https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/7/russia-and-china-block-un-resolution-on-strait-of-hormuz] Trump set a Tuesday deadline for reopening or escalation. Russia benefits by diluting US leverage; China secures energy imports without Western naval dominance. Gulf states like Bahrain and Saudi Arabia lose most, their refineries hit by Iranian drones.
Central Banks Sound Alarm on Geopolitics
Nearly 70% of central banks now rank geopolitical tensions as the top global risk, up from 35% in 2024, per a survey of managers overseeing $9.5 trillion in reserves.[
https://www.reuters.com/business/central-banks-concern-over-rising-geopolitical-tensions-surges-survey-shows-2026-04-07/] Conducted January-March (pre-major Iran strikes), it cites US-Denmark Greenland spat and Gaza spillover. Inflation/rates top 5-year worries but slipped to 50% from 76%. Dollar trust erodes—80% still see it as safe-haven, but 16% factor its role in decisions (vs. 3% last year). Gold holdings rise to 75%, with 40% eyeing more. Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari warns prolonged Iran war curbs rate guidance amid inflation risks.[https://www.reuters.com/business/central-banks-concern-over-rising-geopolitical-tensions-surges-survey-shows-2026-04-07/]
Asia-Pacific banks question dollar dominance amid "global fragmentation." US bonds lag peers; exporters like China gain from volatility.
Ceasefire Fragile, Lebanon Flares
A US-Iran two-week ceasefire took effect Wednesday, allowing coordinated Hormuz shipping—Pakistan-mediated after Trump's "civilization" threat.[
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce84z6y3ke4o] Iran demands sanction lifts, asset releases, war end in Iraq/Yemen/Lebanon; Trump eyes tariffs on arms suppliers. Israel excludes Lebanon, hitting Hezbollah with 100+ strikes killing 182.[
https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-israel-trump-lebanon-april-8-2026-38d75d5e4f1c7339a1456fc99415bb2a] US destroyer blocked an Iranian tanker; UAE quits OPEC amid attacks.[
https://www.npr.org/2026/04/28/nx-s1-5802283/iran-middle-east-updates] Casualties: 1,900+ in Iran, 1,700+ in Lebanon, 13 US troops.
Trump claims victory; Iran formalizes strait tolls for revenue. Gulf rebuilds hit infrastructure.
Nuclear Standoff Escalates at UN
Iran's NPT vice-president role sparked US fury: "affront" to treaty amid non-cooperation claims.[https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-iran-clash-un-after-tehran-gets-nuclear-non-proliferation-role-2026-04-27/] Tehran counters US hypocrisy as sole nuclear user. Iran delays nuclear talks until war/shipping resolved; Trump red lines persist. IAEA notes shuttered weapons program (2003).[https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-iran-clash-un-after-tehran-gets-nuclear-non-proliferation-role-2026-04-27/]
China/Russia back Iran; non-aligned states picked it. Read more in our 
conflict topic page.
Russia gains by splitting West; Iran buys time. US/Israel lose non-prolif momentum.
Watch Pakistan Talks Friday
Islamabad hosts US-Iran delegations Friday for full deal on nukes, straits, proxies.[https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce84z6y3ke4o][https://www.npr.org/2026/04/28/nx-s1-5802283/iran-middle-east-updates] Trump team (Vance) leads; Iran leadership fractured. Gulf summit or Trump tariff escalation if Hormuz stalls. Israel-Lebanon ceasefire breach triggers wider war. Dollar/gold moves signal reserve shifts by May NPT close. Check United States profile for leverage plays.
