Germany.

Germany’s foreign policy is still anchored in the postwar formula of European integration, Atlantic alliance, and trade openness, but under Chancellor Friedrich Merz it is being pushed toward a harder-edged security posture centered on deterrence against Russia, tighter control of critical dependencies on China, and greater demands for European burden-sharing inside NATO and the EU [Federal Foreign Office](https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/aussenpolitik), [Federal Government](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/federal-government/chancellor), [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/can-friedrich-merz-have-an-effective-foreign-policy/). The decision structure matters: foreign policy is formally run by the chancellery and foreign office, but on sanctions, arms transfers, EU fiscal choices, and defense spending the chancellor, finance ministry, coalition arithmetic, Bundestag politics, and Germany’s constitutional court constraints all shape the outcome, with the chancellor usually decisive when major security and alliance questions collide [German Basic Law, Bundestag English](https://www.bundestag.de/en/parliament/function/legalbasis/basiclaw), [Federal Foreign Office](https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/aussenpolitik), [Carnegie Europe](https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/). Germany’s survival-tier interest is preventing a hostile revision of the European security order by Russia; its regime-and-system tier interest is preserving an EU-centered liberal order that protects German democracy and export-led prosperity; its economic tier interest is keeping access to global markets while reducing one-sided energy and technology dependence; its status tier interest is to remain Europe’s central convening power without appearing hegemonic [National Security Strategy 2023](https://www.nationalesicherheitsstrategie.de/National-Security-Strategy-EN.pdf), [Federal Ministry of Defence](https://www.bmvg.de/en), [Bundesbank](https://www.bundesbank.de/en/tasks/topics/the-german-current-account-605078).

Berlin’s stated doctrine is set out most clearly in the 2023 National Security Strategy, which describes Germany as acting in “integrated security,” names Russia as the “most significant threat” to peace in the Euro-Atlantic area, and calls China simultaneously a “partner, competitor and systemic rival” [National Security Strategy 2023](https://www.nationalesicherheitsstrategie.de/National-Security-Strategy-EN.pdf). That document also commits Germany to meeting NATO capability targets, protecting critical infrastructure, and reducing strategic dependencies in energy, raw materials, semiconductors, and digital networks [National Security Strategy 2023](https://www.nationalesicherheitsstrategie.de/National-Security-Strategy-EN.pdf). Capabilities give Berlin weight: Germany’s population is about 84 million and nominal GDP was about $4.5 trillion in 2024, making it Europe’s largest economy [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/germany), [IMF World Economic Outlook Database](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2025/April). Germany’s military profile is expanding but still politically contested; SIPRI estimates German military expenditure at about $88.5 billion in 2024, the fourth highest in the world, reflecting the post-2022 rearmament push rather than a settled strategic culture [SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2025/unprecedented-rise-global-military-expenditure-european-and-middle-east-spending-surges). The basic pattern is that Berlin talks like a status quo civilian power but increasingly behaves like a front-line framework state for NATO in Europe [NATO](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49198.htm), [Federal Ministry of Defence](https://www.bmvg.de/en).

Its key bilateral relationships follow that hierarchy of interests. The United States remains Germany’s indispensable security partner because NATO’s nuclear deterrent, U.S. force presence in Europe, and intelligence cooperation cannot be replaced by any European arrangement in the near term [U.S. Department of State](https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-germany/), [NATO](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49198.htm). France is Germany’s necessary partner for EU institutional bargaining, industrial policy, and defense initiatives, even when Paris and Berlin diverge on debt mutualization, energy policy, or the pace of strategic autonomy [Elysée Treaty/Aachen framework, French Presidency](https://www.elysee.fr/en/french-german-cooperation), [European Council on Foreign Relations](https://ecfr.eu/europeanpower/germany/). Poland has become more important because eastern-flank security now drives European politics, and Berlin has had to compensate for years of mistrust over Russia policy and defense credibility [German Marshall Fund](https://www.gmfus.org/), [NATO](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_136388.htm). China is Germany’s hardest economic relationship: China has been a major trading partner for years, but Berlin’s China Strategy explicitly warns against dependence, coercion, and risks to supply chains and technology security [Federal Foreign Office, China Strategy](https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/aussenpolitik/regionaleschwerpunkte/asien/china-strategy/2613402), [Destatis](https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/Foreign-Trade/_node.html). Russia, by contrast, shifted from a managed interdependence partner to the principal external threat in German official strategy after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine [National Security Strategy 2023](https://www.nationalesicherheitsstrategie.de/National-Security-Strategy-EN.pdf), [Federal Foreign Office](https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/aussenpolitik/laenderinformationen/ukraine-node).

Multilaterally, Germany works through the EU first, NATO second, and the UN as a legitimacy and coalition platform rather than a primary security instrument [Federal Foreign Office](https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/aussenpolitik/internationale-organisationen), [European Union](https://european-union.europa.eu/principles-countries-history/country-profiles/germany_en), [United Nations](https://www.un.org/en/about-us/member-states/germany). It is a founding logic, if not a founding member, of the European project, a NATO ally, a G7 member, an OSCE participant, and a frequent candidate for a permanent UN Security Council seat as part of the G4 reform group with Brazil, India, and Japan [United Nations](