Iran's Hormuz Strategy

Iran's Hormuz Gambit Forces Moscow Into the Picture

As the Strait of Hormuz stays closed and oil markets reel, Tehran is courting Putin — not to end the war, but to strengthen its hand before the next round of talks.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi flew to Moscow on April 27 carrying a message from Supreme Leader Khamenei for Vladimir Putin, who condemned what he called "unprovoked aggression" against Iran. The timing is deliberate. A second round of US-Iran nuclear talks is scheduled in Rome, Pakistan is running shuttle diplomacy between Washington and Tehran, and the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows — remains closed under IRGC enforcement, with Iranian forces firing on vessels that attempt to pass.

The Leverage Architecture

Tehran is running a two-track strategy with unusual coherence. On one track, it is keeping the strait shut as a maximum-pressure instrument, having first closed it in mid-April in direct response to a US naval blockade of Iranian ports — a move Trump framed as strangling Iran's oil revenues. The IRGC has since fired on Indian-flagged vessels, prompting New Delhi to summon Iran's ambassador, and the US Navy seized at least one Iranian cargo ship near the chokepoint. According to AP News, hundreds of ships and approximately 20,000 seafarers remain stranded.

On the second track, Iran is hedging diplomatically. The Moscow visit is designed to lock in Russia as a formal supporter — and potential co-guarantor — of any nuclear deal before Tehran sits down with Washington in Rome. AP News reports that Lavrov confirmed Russia is ready to mediate, and the core nuclear sticking points are already visible: the duration of enrichment restrictions (5 vs. 20 years) and the fate of Iran's 440 kg stockpile of highly enriched uranium.

Who Holds the Leverage — and Who Pays

Putin gains a high-profile diplomatic role that partially rehabilitates Russia's international standing while reinforcing the Moscow–Tehran axis. Iran gains a veto-proof diplomatic shield: any deal Russia co-signs is harder for Washington to walk back unilaterally, as the US learned after its 2018 withdrawal from the JCPOA.

The losers are immediate and measurable. Oil markets have spiked on Hormuz disruption fears. India, which imports heavily through Gulf routes and had two ships fired upon, is caught between its Iran energy ties and its US strategic alignment. The European navies — France and the UK are reportedly coordinating a defensive freedom-of-navigation mission — face the prospect of physically inserting themselves into a live conflict corridor.

Trump's public posture remains bifurcated: threatening to strike civilian infrastructure if Iran rejects a deal, while simultaneously telling reporters "Tehran can call for talks." That ambiguity is Iran's operating space. Al Jazeera reports Iran briefly reopened the strait during an earlier ceasefire window, demonstrating it can toggle access as a negotiating dial.

What to Watch

The Rome talks are the next hard deadline. If Iran arrives with Russian backing and a co-guarantor framework, Washington faces a structurally harder negotiation than a bilateral deal. Watch whether Rubio or a senior US envoy matches Araghchi's diplomatic level in Rome — any downgrade signals Washington is not serious. The second signal: whether the IRGC allows the France-UK freedom-of-navigation mission to operate without incident, which would indicate Tehran is preserving an off-ramp. A third firefight near the strait closes that door fast.

For the broader trajectory of this conflict, see International Politics and the Iran conflict tracker.