Aliyev’s Coup Trial: Baku Moves to Crush Its

Aliyev’s Coup Trial: Baku Moves to Crush Its Last Opposition

Azerbaijan put Popular Front leader Ali Karimli on trial today for an alleged coup, a move designed to permanently seal the regime's control.

On Wednesday, Azerbaijan's prominent opposition leader Ali Karimli went on trial in Baku on charges of plotting an "attempted coup," a prosecution that represents the final stage of President Ilham Aliyev’s campaign to eliminate domestic dissent. Speaking from prison, Karimli told France 24 that the constitutional overthrow charges against him are "entirely fabricated and politically motivated," warning of a direct threat of assassination behind bars. This trial, coming months after Karimli’s arrest in late 2025, signals a decisive pivot by the Baku regime to secure its home front as it moves to consolidate regional power.

Concocting a Coup

The Azerbaijani regime holds all the leverage in this judicial proceeding, using a highly centralized security apparatus to neutralize its most vocal critic. According to Azerbaijani state intelligence reports cited by BBC News, prosecutors have linked Karimli to Ramiz Mehdiyev, the former Presidential Administration chief who was purged by Aliyev and subsequently accused of treason. Investigators allege that Mehdiyev and Karimli conspired with foreign special services to overthrow the government. For years, Karimli’s party, the Azerbaijani Popular Front Party (AXCP), has been systematically targeted, but tying Karimli to high-profile regime defectors allows the state to criminalize the entire concept of opposition as national security subversion.

By executing this trial now, President Ilham Aliyev is cementing absolute domestic authority. With the territorial conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh resolved and Baku’s profile elevated internationally through major energy summits, the regime no longer feels pressure to maintain a facade of democratic pluralism. Karimli had aggressively criticized the government’s international image-polishing, writing in The Economist that such events merely greenwash a dictatorship. Sidelining Karimli signals to both local critics and international partners in Global Politics that Aliyev’s dominance is non-negotiable.

The Winners and Losers

The immediate beneficiary of this trial is the ruling Aliyev dynasty, which has governed Azerbaijan for over three decades without serious institutional challenge. Sidelining Karimli removes a highly resilient symbol of resistance who, despite decades of police physical harassment recorded by BBC News, refused to flee the country or compromise. The biggest losers are Azerbaijan’s fragmented civil society and secular pro-democratic blocks, who now face a complete vacuum of leadership. Western governments also lose diplomatic card; as Europe increases its dependence on Azerbaijani natural gas to replace Russian energy, Western leaders have largely muted their criticism of Baku's human rights record, leaving local dissidents isolated.

What to Watch Next

The immediate milestone to watch is the conviction and sentencing ruling by the Baku court, which legal experts anticipate will carry a heavy prison sentence under Article 278.1 of the Criminal Code. Additionally, observers should watch how European Union diplomats react to the trial’s conclusion. While the EU seeks to preserve its southern energy partnerships, a harsh sentence for Karimli will test whether Brussels can ignore such overt repression or if it will face mounting pressure to condition future gas deals on political prisoner releases.