Voter Behavior

Rationally, your individual vote almost never decides an election. The odds of casting the deciding vote in a US presidential election are roughly 1 in 10 million in a swing state. Yet hundreds of millions of people vote worldwide. Why?

What Drives Turnout

Institutional factors matter most:

• Compulsory voting — Australia fines non-voters ~$20 AUD. Turnout: 91%. Belgium, Brazil, and 20+ other countries also mandate it.
• Automatic registration — In many European countries, you're registered to vote automatically. In the US, you must register yourself, which cuts turnout by an estimated 5-9 points.
• Election day logistics — Voting on a weekend or holiday (France, South Korea) vs. a Tuesday (US). Early voting and mail-in ballots.
• Proportional systems see higher turnout than FPTP — every vote feels like it counts.

Demographic factors:

• Age — older people vote more everywhere. In the 2019 UK election, 47% of 18-24 year olds voted vs. 74% of 65+.
• Education — higher education correlates strongly with turnout
• Income — wealthier citizens vote more, widening political inequality

The Turnout Gap Problem

Low turnout isn't random — it's systematically skewed. Young people, minorities, and low-income citizens vote at lower rates everywhere. This means elected governments disproportionately represent older, wealthier, whiter electorates.

In the 2022 US midterms, turnout among 18-29 year olds was 23% — compared to 55% for those 65+. Politicians rationally cater to people who show up.

Global Turnout Comparison