Threats to Multilateralism

The Unraveling

The multilateral system is under more stress than at any time since its creation. The forces are multiple and reinforcing. Great-power rivalry between the US and China makes consensus harder to achieve in every institution where both participate. Russia's violation of the UN Charter's prohibition on the use of force undermines the legal foundation of the entire system. Nationalist movements across Europe, the Americas, and Asia challenge the premise that sovereignty should be shared with international institutions.

Institutional sclerosis compounds the problem. The WTO cannot conclude trade rounds. The Security Council cannot address the most dangerous conflicts. The IMF's quota system does not reflect economic reality. When institutions fail to deliver, states pursue alternatives — bilateral deals, minilateral groupings, and unilateral action. Each time they do, the multilateral institutions weaken further.

The Specific Threats

US-China competition is the most consequential. The two largest economies and military powers are increasingly operating in competing frameworks — the Artemis Accords vs. the ILRS in space, the AUKUS alliance vs. Chinese influence in the Pacific, the Trans-Pacific trade framework vs. RCEP. As competition intensifies, the incentive to cooperate in shared institutions diminishes.

Democratic backsliding weakens institutions that presume shared democratic values. When Hungary's Orban blocks EU sanctions, or the Philippines' Duterte ignores the ICC, it erodes institutional credibility. Authoritarian members use multilateral institutions to shield themselves from accountability.

Technological change outpaces governance. Artificial intelligence, cyber warfare, synthetic biology, and space weapons all pose threats that no existing institution was designed to address. The lag between technological capability and institutional governance grows wider every year.

Climate change is the ultimate test. If the Paris Agreement framework cannot deliver sufficient emissions reductions — and current trajectories suggest it cannot — the failure will be the most consequential multilateral shortfall in history.

Mapping the Pressures

Worked example — the WTO Appellate Body. The clearest case of sclerosis killing an institution is the WTO's dispute settlement system. Its Appellate Body was the crown jewel of the rules-based trade order — binding, enforceable rulings that even great powers accepted. Starting in 2019 the United States blocked all new appointments of appellate judges, objecting to what it called judicial overreach. By December 2019 the Body fell below the three-member quorum needed to hear appeals and effectively ceased to function, leaving trade disputes to be appealed 'into the void.' No dramatic collapse, no treaty withdrawal — just a single member quietly refusing to fill vacancies. It is a textbook illustration of how multilateral institutions erode: not with a bang, but by starvation.