The US-China Trade War
How tariffs, sanctions, and tech bans are reshaping the world's most important economic relationship.
From Engagement to Confrontation
For decades, the US approach to China rested on 'engagement' — the theory that economic integration would gradually liberalize China. By the mid-2010s, a bipartisan consensus emerged that engagement had failed. China had become richer and more technologically capable but also more authoritarian, more mercantilist, and more geopolitically assertive. The US trade deficit with China had ballooned to over $375 billion.
Donald Trump made the trade deficit a central campaign issue and launched tariffs in 2018 — initially 25% on $50 billion of Chinese goods, eventually escalating to cover over $370 billion of imports. China retaliated with tariffs on US agricultural products, energy, and manufactured goods. The trade war was the most significant disruption to global commerce since the 1930s Smoot-Hawley tariffs, though its ultimate form went far beyond trade.