Prospects for Sudan's Future
The scenarios for how Sudan's crisis might end — from negotiated transition to fragmentation — and what each would mean for the Sudanese people.
Scenario 1: Negotiated Settlement
The most optimistic scenario is a negotiated end to the war followed by an inclusive political transition. This would require external pressure on both the SAF and RSF to stop fighting, agreement on a power-sharing framework, and a credible process for security sector reform — ultimately merging or disbanding competing armed forces into a single national army.
Historical precedent offers modest hope. Sudan's 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement ended the north-south civil war and held long enough to allow a referendum. The 2019 Constitutional Declaration created a transitional framework that, despite the 2021 coup, showed Sudanese political actors could negotiate power sharing.
But the obstacles are formidable. Both the SAF and RSF would need to accept constraints on their power. Accountability for atrocities would need to be addressed — a requirement that may be incompatible with the amnesty demands of military actors. And the civilian political forces that would need to lead a transition have been scattered by the war, with many leaders in exile.