Nuclear Terrorism Risk
How terrorists could acquire nuclear material or weapons, what the consequences would be, and what the world is doing to prevent the ultimate catastrophe.
The Threat
Nuclear terrorism has been described by multiple world leaders as the single greatest threat to international security. The concern has two dimensions. First, a terrorist group could acquire a complete nuclear weapon, most likely through theft from a state arsenal or transfer by a sympathetic insider. Second, and more plausibly, terrorists could obtain fissile material (highly enriched uranium or plutonium) and build a crude improvised nuclear device. A third scenario involves a radiological 'dirty bomb' that disperses radioactive material using conventional explosives.
The threat is not theoretical. Al-Qaeda actively pursued nuclear weapons before 9/11. Osama bin Laden declared obtaining nuclear weapons a 'religious duty.' Aum Shinrikyo, the Japanese cult that released sarin gas in the Tokyo subway in 1995, attempted to acquire nuclear material. Multiple incidents of nuclear material trafficking have been documented, including HEU seizures in Georgia and Moldova. Pakistan's nuclear security, given the presence of Islamist extremists in its security services, has been a persistent concern.
