Nuclear Brinkmanship and the Cuban Missile Crisis

Second-strike capability: Both sides needed survivable nuclear forces (submarine-launched missiles, hardened silos)
Credibility: Each side had to believe the other would actually retaliate
Rationality: Leaders had to be rational actors who valued survival over ideology
Communication: Both sides needed to understand each other&#x27;s capabilities and intentions

Nuclear Brinkmanship

The Cuban Missile Crisis, the logic of deterrence, and how close the world came to nuclear war.

The Cuban Missile Crisis (October 1962)

The world came closest to nuclear war during 13 days in October 1962. After the US discovered Soviet nuclear missiles being installed in Cuba — 90 miles from Florida — President Kennedy imposed a naval blockade ('quarantine') and demanded their removal.

The crisis is a case study in brinkmanship. Key moments:

Kennedy's advisors were split: hawks (led by Curtis LeMay) urged airstrikes; doves urged negotiation
Soviet submarines in the quarantine zone carried nuclear torpedoes; one captain nearly launched when depth-charged by the US Navy. Soviet officer Vasili Arkhipov's refusal to authorize the launch may have prevented nuclear war
A U-2 spy plane was shot down over Cuba on 'Black Saturday' (October 27), nearly triggering an escalatory spiral

The resolution: Khrushchev withdrew the missiles in exchange for a US pledge not to invade Cuba and a secret agreement to remove US Jupiter missiles from Turkey. Both leaders had stared into the abyss and blinked.

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