The Iran Nuclear Crisis

The Long Road to the Nuclear Deal

Iran's nuclear program dates to the 1950s, when the US provided Iran's first research reactor under the Atoms for Peace program. After the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran's nuclear activities continued with assistance from Pakistan's A.Q. Khan network and others.

In 2002, an Iranian dissident group revealed the existence of two undeclared nuclear facilities — a uranium enrichment plant at Natanz and a heavy-water reactor at Arak. The IAEA confirmed that Iran had failed to declare significant nuclear activities for 18 years, triggering a crisis that continues today.

After years of sanctions and negotiations, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was agreed in 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 (US, UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany). Iran agreed to:

• Reduce its enriched uranium stockpile by 98%
• Limit enrichment to 3.67% (far below the ~90% needed for weapons)
• Reduce centrifuges by two-thirds
• Accept the most intrusive inspection regime in IAEA history

In return, nuclear-related sanctions were lifted, and Iran regained access to global oil markets and the financial system.

The JCPOA's Collapse and Current Status

In May 2018, President Trump withdrew the United States from the JCPOA, calling it 'the worst deal ever,' and reimposed crushing sanctions on Iran. The US withdrawal was controversial: the IAEA had certified Iran's compliance in every quarterly report since the deal's implementation.

After a year of maintaining compliance despite US sanctions, Iran began exceeding the deal's limits in 2019. It increased enrichment to 20%, then to 60% — close to weapons-grade 90%. It installed advanced centrifuges and grew its stockpile. In early 2024, Iran's breakout time — the time needed to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for one bomb — was estimated at approximately one to two weeks, compared to over a year under the JCPOA.

Diplomatic efforts to restore the deal under President Biden made progress in 2022 but ultimately stalled over issues including Iran's demand for guarantees against future US withdrawal and disputes over IAEA access to undeclared sites. The situation remains one of the most dangerous proliferation crises in the world.