The Grain Crisis and Global Food Security

The World's Breadbasket Goes Dark

Ukraine and Russia together account for roughly 30% of global wheat exports, 20% of corn exports, and over 50% of sunflower oil exports. Ukraine alone was the world's fifth-largest wheat exporter and a critical supplier of grain to countries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa.

The invasion disrupted this supply chain at every level. Russian naval forces blockaded Ukraine's Black Sea ports — particularly Odesa, through which the majority of Ukraine's grain exports flowed. Ukrainian farmers faced mined fields, fuel shortages, and conscription of agricultural workers. Russian forces deliberately targeted grain storage facilities and agricultural infrastructure.

The impact was immediate and global. Wheat prices surged by over 50% within weeks of the invasion. The UN World Food Programme warned that the conflict could push tens of millions of additional people into acute hunger. Countries most dependent on Ukrainian and Russian grain — Egypt, Lebanon, Tunisia, Somalia, Yemen — faced the most severe consequences.

The crisis exposed a structural vulnerability in the global food system: critical food supplies flow through narrow chokepoints (the Black Sea, the Turkish Straits) and are concentrated among a small number of major exporters. When conflict disrupts these chokepoints, the most food-insecure countries suffer disproportionately.

The Black Sea Grain Initiative

In July 2022, Turkey and the United Nations brokered the Black Sea Grain Initiative — an agreement allowing Ukrainian grain exports to resume through a safe maritime corridor. The deal involved Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN, with a Joint Coordination Centre in Istanbul inspecting ships to ensure they carried only grain and not weapons.

The initiative was a rare diplomatic achievement during the war. Over its first year of operation, more than 32 million tonnes of grain and other foodstuffs were exported from Ukrainian ports. Global food prices began to decline from their peaks.

However, the deal was fraught with tensions:

• Russia repeatedly complained that its own agricultural and fertilizer exports faced obstacles due to sanctions on banking and shipping insurance, even though food and fertilizer were technically exempt.
• Russia suspended and then rejoined the deal multiple times, using it as leverage.
• Much of the grain went to higher-income countries (China, Spain, Turkey) rather than the most food-insecure nations, though the overall effect on global prices still benefited poor countries indirectly.

In July 2023, Russia withdrew from the grain deal entirely, citing unmet demands regarding its own exports. Ukraine subsequently established an alternative export corridor hugging the western Black Sea coast near Romanian and Bulgarian waters, which Russia initially threatened but eventually tolerated. By late 2023, Ukrainian grain exports had partially recovered through this route and through expanded overland transport via rail and road to European ports.

The Fertilizer Crisis

The food security impact extended beyond grain. Russia is the world's largest exporter of fertilizer nutrients, including nitrogen, phosphate, and potash. Belarus — a close Russian ally also under sanctions — is another major potash producer.

While Western sanctions officially exempted food and fertilizer, the practical effects of financial sanctions (banking restrictions, shipping insurance complications, port access issues) created a chilling effect that reduced Russian fertilizer exports. Combined with surging natural gas prices (gas is a key input for nitrogen fertilizer production), fertilizer prices doubled or tripled.

For subsistence farmers in Africa and South Asia, expensive fertilizer means lower crop yields, which means less food in the following season. The World Bank estimated that the fertilizer shortage could reduce food production in affected regions for years, creating a cascading crisis beyond the immediate grain supply disruption.

Who Suffers Most?

The global food security impact of the war fell disproportionately on countries that had no involvement in the conflict:

• East Africa experienced its worst food crisis in decades, compounded by drought
• Egypt, which imports over 60% of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine, faced bread price spikes that threatened social stability
• Lebanon, already in economic collapse, lost a critical food supply line
• Yemen and Somalia, already in humanitarian crises, were pushed further toward famine

This dynamic fueled resentment toward both Russia (for causing the disruption) and the West (for imposing sanctions that complicated food and fertilizer trade) across the Global South.