The Future of Polar and Space Governance
Where the Arctic and outer space are headed — competing visions, emerging norms, and whether cooperation or competition will prevail.
Two Models, One Century
The governance of the Arctic and outer space is splitting along familiar geopolitical lines. The United States and its allies favor a model built on existing treaties supplemented by bilateral agreements — the Artemis Accords for space, NATO-aligned security for the Arctic. China and Russia favor a model where global commons are governed through multilateral institutions — the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space for orbit, a more inclusive Arctic framework that acknowledges near-Arctic states.
Neither model is purely cooperative or purely competitive. The Artemis Accords are open to all nations but were designed by the US. China's International Lunar Research Station invites partners but is led by Beijing. The Arctic Council was genuinely multilateral but has fractured. The question for the coming decades is whether these parallel tracks converge into shared governance or harden into competing spheres of influence.