Fossil Fuel Phase-Out
The global debate over ending the fossil fuel era, from 'phase-out' versus 'phase-down' language to stranded assets and the politics of energy transition.
Naming the Problem
For decades, international climate negotiations focused on emissions targets and carbon budgets without naming the primary cause: fossil fuels. Neither the Kyoto Protocol nor the Paris Agreement mentions coal, oil, or gas. This changed at COP26 in Glasgow in 2021, when the final text included language on 'phasing down unabated coal power,' the first explicit reference to a specific fossil fuel in a COP decision. India and China weakened the original 'phase-out' to 'phase-down' in last-minute negotiations, a change that disappointed many delegates but still marked a watershed.
At COP28 in Dubai in 2023, hosted by the UAE, a major oil producer, the debate intensified. The final agreement called for 'transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly, and equitable manner.' This was hailed as historic because it was the first COP decision to address all fossil fuels, not just coal. But the language fell short of the explicit 'phase-out' that over 100 countries demanded, reflecting the enormous political resistance from petrostate economies.
