The Demographic Cliff
How the one-child policy and falling birth rates threaten to end China's growth miracle before it reaches rich-country status.
The One-Child Policy's Legacy
China's one-child policy, enforced from 1980 to 2015, was the most aggressive demographic intervention in history. It prevented an estimated 400 million births — and created a time bomb. The policy was initially credited with reducing the dependency ratio (the number of children and elderly relative to working-age adults), creating a 'demographic dividend' that fueled economic growth as a large working-age population supported relatively few dependents.
But the dividend has a flip side. China's working-age population peaked around 2015 and has been declining since. The fertility rate has plummeted to roughly 1.0 — among the lowest in the world, well below the 2.1 replacement level, and lower than Japan's at its demographic nadir. In 2022, China's population declined for the first time since the Great Famine. The UN projects China's population could fall from 1.4 billion to under 800 million by 2100.
