Campaign Strategy Fundamentals
The strategic framework every campaign uses: defining the electorate, identifying the path to victory, and allocating scarce resources.
Start With the Win Number
Every campaign begins with a simple calculation: how many votes do we need to win? In a two-candidate race, that is 50% plus one of expected turnout. In a multi-candidate race, the math is more complex. This 'win number' drives everything: how many voters the campaign must persuade, how many supporters it must turn out, and where those voters are located.
Once the win number is set, the campaign builds a vote target model. Who are the voters most likely to support our candidate but who might not show up? These are 'mobilization targets.' Who are the voters genuinely undecided between the candidates? These are 'persuasion targets.' And who are the voters firmly supporting the opponent? These are voters the campaign should largely ignore, because convincing committed opponents is far more expensive than mobilizing supporters.