Arctic Governance
How melting ice is opening new sea routes and resource frontiers in the Arctic.
The Arctic Transformation
Arctic sea ice has declined by roughly 40% since satellite monitoring began in 1979. This is opening the Arctic to activities previously impossible: shipping via the Northern Sea Route (cutting Europe-Asia transit by 40%), oil and gas exploration (the Arctic holds an estimated 13% of undiscovered oil and 30% of undiscovered gas), and commercial fishing in newly ice-free waters.
The Arctic Council — comprising Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the US — has been the primary governance forum since 1996. But it was designed for cooperation, not competition. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 effectively froze (the other seven members suspended cooperation with Russia), leaving Arctic governance in limbo at exactly the moment new challenges demand coordination.