The Global Stocktake (GST) is mandated under Article 14 of the , requiring parties to 'periodically take stock' of collective progress toward Paris goals. The first GST began in 2021 and concluded at COP28 in Dubai (December 2023) with an outcome decision.
Three Components
The GST has three components:
- Information collection and preparation: synthesizing data from NDCs, biennial reports, IPCC assessments, and other sources.
- Technical assessment: dialogues among parties, scientists, and stakeholders to evaluate collective progress.
- Political consideration and outputs: high-level political engagement leading to outcome decisions at the COP.
The three-stage process is designed to ensure that political decisions are grounded in technical analysis and that the technical analysis is responsive to political needs.
First GST Findings
The first GST's findings included:
- Collective progress is insufficient to keep 1.5°C in reach.
- Emissions need to fall 43% by 2030 (vs 2019) to align with 1.5°C.
- The transition away from fossil fuels must accelerate.
- Finance flows are insufficient and need to shift fundamentally.
- Adaptation efforts require substantial scale-up.
- Implementation gaps persist between commitments and delivery.
The findings provided the analytical foundation for the COP28 UAE 's call to transition away from fossil fuels and for the broader political momentum on climate ambition.
Influence on NDCs
The GST is intended to inform countries' updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) — the second-round NDCs are due in 2025 to inform COP30 in Belém. The Paris Agreement's design assumes that each NDC cycle will reflect the previous GST's findings, creating a 'ratchet' mechanism for progressively stronger ambition.
Whether second-round NDCs actually reflect the first GST's findings will be a major test of the Paris Agreement's effectiveness. Early indicators from 2024-25 NDC drafts suggest mixed results — some parties incorporating GST findings substantially, others maintaining first-round commitments without strengthening.
Next Cycle
The next GST runs 2026-2028, with conclusion at COP33. The second GST will assess progress against the second-round NDCs and provide the analytical foundation for third-round NDCs due in 2030.
Why It Matters
The GST is the central accountability mechanism of the Paris Agreement. Without the GST, there would be no formal process for assessing whether the collective ambition of NDCs is sufficient and whether countries are delivering on commitments.
The GST also creates political pressure: when collective progress is publicly shown to be insufficient, individual parties face pressure to strengthen their NDCs. The political-pressure mechanism is central to the Paris Agreement's theory of change.
Common Misconceptions
The GST is sometimes assumed to assess individual country performance. It does not — the GST assesses collective progress; individual country assessments are conducted through the transparency (separate from the GST).
Another misconception is that the GST produces binding outcomes. It does not — the GST produces political guidance that parties are expected to reflect in their NDCs but are not legally required to.
Real-World Examples
The December 2023 first GST outcome decision at COP28 provided the analytical foundation for the UAE Consensus. The 2024-25 NDC drafting cycle is testing whether parties incorporate GST findings. The 2026 launch of the second GST will be the next major analytical milestone in the Paris Agreement implementation cycle.
Example
The first Global Stocktake outcome at COP28 (December 2023) included the call to 'transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems' — the most consequential output of the inaugural GST.