Case Study: A Current Crisis

Case Study: The Russia-Ukraine War

On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine — the largest military operation in Europe since World War II. Understanding this conflict requires applying every concept from this course.

Background:

• Ukraine gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991
• The 2014 Euromaidan revolution ousted a pro-Russian president; Russia annexed Crimea and backed separatists in Donbas
• Ukraine increasingly sought Western integration — EU association agreement, NATO aspirations
• Russia demanded NATO guarantee Ukraine would never join; NATO refused

The Invasion:

• Russia attacked from multiple directions, aiming to capture Kyiv in days
• Ukraine's unexpectedly effective resistance — aided by Western weapons, intelligence, and training — stopped the initial advance
• The war became a grinding attritional conflict, primarily in eastern and southern Ukraine

Applying Course Concepts

Security dilemma: NATO expansion made the West feel safer but made Russia feel threatened — a textbook security dilemma. Russia's response (invasion) then threatened Western security, prompting more NATO expansion (Finland, Sweden).

Collective defense: NATO has not directly intervened (Ukraine isn't a member), but Article 5 has deterred Russian attacks on NATO territory. The war demonstrates both the power and the limits of alliances.

Sanctions: The West imposed unprecedented sanctions — SWIFT disconnection, asset freezes, oil price caps. Russia's economy adapted better than expected, partly through trade rerouting via China and India.

Nuclear dimension: Russia has made nuclear threats; the conflict has raised concerns about escalation. MAD deterrence is being tested in a new context — not direct US-Russia conflict, but a proxy-like situation.

Security Council paralysis: Russia's P5 veto has blocked any UNSC action on Ukraine. The General Assembly condemned the invasion (141-5) but has no enforcement power.

Human security: Millions of refugees, civilian casualties, destroyed infrastructure, food insecurity — the human cost extends far beyond the battlefield.