Karaganov doctrine

Positions at a glance

Supporters

The doctrine gained international attention with Karaganov's June 2023 essay in Profile magazine, titled in English roughly as "A Difficult but Necessary Decision," in which he argued that Russia should be willing to launch a limited nuclear strike on a European NATO member to "break the will" of the West and restore the credibility of nuclear deterrence, which he claimed had eroded since the Cold War. He framed this as a way to end the war in Ukraine on Russian terms and to deter further Western support for Kyiv.

Opponents

The Karaganov doctrine refers to a cluster of arguments advanced by Russian political scientist Sergei Karaganov, honorary chairman of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy and academic supervisor at the Higher School of Economics, urging Moscow to lower the threshold for nuclear use as a tool of strategic coercion against the West.

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In June 2023, Sergei Karaganov published an essay in Profile magazine arguing Russia should consider a limited nuclear strike on a European NATO state to force the West to halt support for Ukraine.

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Positions at a glance

Supporters

Opponents

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The Karaganov doctrine refers to a cluster of arguments advanced by Russian political scientist Sergei Karaganov, honorary chairman of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy and academic supervisor at the Higher School of Economics, urging Moscow to lower the threshold for nuclear use as a tool of strategic coercion against the West.

The doctrine gained international attention with Karaganov's June 2023 essay in Profile magazine, titled in English roughly as "A Difficult but Necessary Decision," in which he argued that Russia should be willing to launch a limited nuclear strike on a European NATO member to "break the will" of the West and restore the credibility of nuclear deterrence, which he claimed had eroded since the Cold War. He framed this as a way to end the war in Ukraine on Russian terms and to deter further Western support for Kyiv.

Key elements commonly associated with the doctrine include:

Restoring "fear" of nuclear escalation as a deterrent currency.
A willingness to use tactical or limited nuclear weapons first, breaking the post-1945 taboo.
Treating NATO expansion and Western liberalism as existential threats justifying such steps.
A civilisational framing in which Russia leads a "world majority" against a declining West.

The proposals provoked sharp debate inside Russia. Several Russian analysts, including Ivan Timofeev and Dmitri Trenin (the latter partly sympathetic), publicly contested aspects of the argument, and the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia's official nuclear doctrine remained unchanged. Nevertheless, elements of Karaganov's reasoning appeared to influence the November 2024 revision of Russia's Basic Principles of State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence, which broadened the conditions for nuclear use.

Western analysts generally treat the doctrine as an escalation-signalling exercise rather than a formal state policy, but it is widely cited in debates about strategic stability, nuclear taboo erosion, and the future of arms control.

Frequently asked questions

Is the Karaganov doctrine official Russian state policy?

No. It is the personal position of analyst Sergei Karaganov. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated Russia's formal nuclear doctrine was unchanged, though the November 2024 doctrinal update broadened use criteria in ways some link to Karaganov's arguments.

Who is Sergei Karaganov?

A Russian political scientist, honorary chairman of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, and academic supervisor at the Higher School of Economics' Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs.

How was the doctrine received inside Russia?

It was controversial. Analysts such as Ivan Timofeev publicly criticised the proposal, while others partially defended it. The debate itself was unusual in being conducted openly in Russian foreign-policy journals.

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Positions at a glance

Supporters

Opponents

Research it like a delegate

Ask a follow-up about Karaganov doctrine

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Take Karaganov doctrine beyond the glossary

Research Karaganov doctrine like a delegate

Positions at a glance

Supporters

Opponents

Research it like a delegate

Ask a follow-up about Karaganov doctrine

Frequently asked questions

Is the Karaganov doctrine official Russian state policy?

Who is Sergei Karaganov?

How was the doctrine received inside Russia?

Go deeper than the definition

Take Karaganov doctrine beyond the glossary

Frequently asked questions

Is the Karaganov doctrine official Russian state policy?

Who is Sergei Karaganov?

How was the doctrine received inside Russia?