First-image analysis is one of the three "images" introduced by Kenneth Waltz in Man, the State, and War (1959) to categorize explanations of international conflict. The first image locates the causes of war and other international outcomes in human nature and individual behavior: aggression, fear, misperception, greed, cognitive bias, or the idiosyncrasies of particular statesmen. The second image points to the internal characteristics of states (regime type, economic system), and the third image to the anarchic structure of the international system.
Classical realists such as Hans Morgenthau and theologians like Reinhold Niebuhr drew heavily on first-image reasoning, treating a fixed, often pessimistic view of human nature as the root of power politics. Liberal and Enlightenment thinkers used the same image in the opposite direction, arguing that human beings are educable and that war stems from remediable ignorance or passion.
Contemporary first-image scholarship is less about "human nature" in the abstract and more about individual leaders and decision-making psychology. Work by Robert Jervis on misperception (Perception and Misperception in International Politics, 1976), Margaret Hermann on leadership traits, and Daniel Kahneman-influenced behavioral IR all sit within this tradition. Studies of how Wilhelm II, Stalin, Saddam Hussein, or Vladimir Putin personally shaped crisis outcomes are characteristic first-image arguments.
Critics note that first-image accounts struggle to explain patterns across very different leaders and eras, which is why Waltz himself favored third-image structural explanations. Defenders counter that structural and domestic theories underdetermine outcomes, leaving real explanatory work for individuals — particularly in nuclear crises, coercive diplomacy, and authoritarian regimes where one person's beliefs translate directly into policy.
For Model UN delegates and junior analysts, identifying which image a source is using is a quick way to map debates: a claim that "Putin's KGB background explains the 2022 invasion" is first-image; "Russia's autocratic regime explains it" is second-image; "NATO expansion and the security dilemma explain it" is third-image.
Example
Analysts who attributed the 2003 Iraq invasion to George W. Bush's personal worldview and post-9/11 psychology rather than to U.S. institutions or systemic pressures were offering a first-image explanation.
Frequently asked questions
Kenneth Waltz, in his 1959 book Man, the State, and War, which organized theories of war into three images: the individual, the state, and the international system.
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