Cumulative deterrence describes a long-term deterrence posture in which a state accepts that it cannot permanently eliminate threats through one decisive engagement and instead seeks to manage them through recurring, calibrated applications of force. Each operation aims to degrade adversary capability, impose costs, and reinforce the credibility of future threats, so that deterrence is constructed cumulatively across many episodes rather than established once and for all.
The concept is most closely associated with Israeli strategic thought, where it has been used to describe the doctrine guiding operations against non-state actors such as Hezbollah and Hamas, as well as against conventional Arab state militaries in earlier decades. Israeli scholars including Doron Almog and Uri Bar-Joseph have written on the idea, arguing that because Israel cannot impose a final political settlement through force, it must instead pursue a posture of "mowing the grass" — periodic operations that restore deterrence after it erodes.
Cumulative deterrence differs from classical Cold War deterrence theory in several ways:
- Time horizon: It is open-ended rather than tied to a single crisis.
- Object: It often targets sub-state actors or asymmetric opponents rather than peer nuclear powers.
- Mechanism: Credibility is built through demonstrated willingness to act repeatedly, not through declaratory policy or assured retaliation alone.
- Goal: It aims at sustained behavioural restraint, not the prevention of any single attack.
Critics argue the doctrine risks normalising recurring conflict, blurs the line between deterrence and attrition, and can substitute tactical action for political strategy. Proponents counter that against opponents who reject negotiated settlement, cumulative deterrence may be the only realistic option short of total war. The concept has also been applied analytically to U.S. counterterrorism strikes, Indian responses along the Line of Control, and Russian coercive behaviour in its near abroad.
Example
Analysts often describe Israel's periodic military operations against Hamas in Gaza, including the 2014 Operation Protective Edge and the 2021 Operation Guardian of the Walls, as applications of a cumulative deterrence doctrine sometimes called "mowing the grass."
Frequently asked questions
Classical deterrence aims to prevent a specific attack through the threat of unacceptable retaliation, often in a single decisive exchange. Cumulative deterrence accepts repeated rounds of limited conflict and builds credibility incrementally across them.
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